{"id":4009,"date":"2019-05-31T16:38:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-31T20:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/granitestatetaxpayers.org\/gst\/?p=4009"},"modified":"2021-11-23T21:58:29","modified_gmt":"2021-11-24T02:58:29","slug":"skeptics-commuter-rail-guide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/granitestatetaxpayers.org\/gst\/skeptics-commuter-rail-guide\/","title":{"rendered":"Skeptic’s Commuter Rail Guide"},"content":{"rendered":"

Facts about Commuter Rail from Andrew Cline of the Josiah Bartlett Center.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A Skeptic\u2019s Guide to Commuter Rail Boosterism.<\/strong><\/p>\n

To promote taxpayer funding of a quarter-billion dollar commuter rail project, supporters last week touted a single poll question, without context, that appeared to show strong public support for commuter rail. It\u2019s a tactic rail enthusiasts have repeated for years. Journalists, lawmakers and the public should be skeptical. This brief run-through of the complex commuter rail issue shows how misleading such PR boosterism can be.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_1863\"<\/a> \"IMG_1859\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Everyone should be wary of any poll that purports to show broad support for an expensive public policy without mentioning costs or alternatives. In some cases, it\u2019s useful to know whether people favor or disfavor an abstract concept. But when a specific policy with known costs is being polled, it\u2019s helpful to ask whether people are willing to pay for the nice idea in question.<\/p>\n

Every issue involves trade-offs, which abstract poll questions often miss.<\/strong>
\nThe St. Anselm College poll question asked, simply: \u201cWould you support or oppose commuter rail connecting Manchester or Nashua with Boston?\u201d Unsurprisingly, three-fourths of respondents (75.5 percent) were in favor. This is similar to a 2015 poll that found 74 percent support for commuter rail in the abstract. The 2015 poll was promoted by the New Hampshire Rail Transit Authority, the second by N.H. Business for Rail Expansion.<\/p>\n

Advocacy groups are using abstract poll questions to promote a specific project, the taxpayer-funded, state-developed Capitol Corridor Rail Expansion Project.
\nBut the public is not being asked about any details of this project.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Journalists and lawmakers should consider whether they would publish a story or cast a vote after asking only a single, generic question. Asking whether people would prefer commuter rail in the abstract is like asking if people would prefer to eat ice cream every day. Of course they would. But their answers will change if asked to weigh the trade-offs.<\/p>\n

Costs<\/strong>
\nThe state Department of Transportation\u2019s final report on the Capitol Corridor project included multiple rail options. For these options, the \u201cfinal capital costs range from $120.3-$256.5 million, incremental O& M from $4.1 to $10.8 million,\u201d the report concluded. (O& M means operations and management.) It would be easy for the projected cost to be incorporated into one poll question.<\/p>\n

For example: \u201cDo you support spending up to $256 million in public funds to build a New Hampshire-Boston commuter rail line that would cost up to $11 million a year in taxpayer funds to operate?\u201d When reporting on this issue, journalists might consider asking commuter rail boosters why they don\u2019t put the question this way.<\/p>\n

Tax increases<\/strong>
\nThe DOT\u2019s report noted that federal funds would cover most of the capital costs, but that matching state funds of about 20 percent were generally expected, depending on the types of federal funds used. It also stated that operations and maintenance costs would be a state responsibility. To cover those costs, it recommended several new taxes and fees. Poll respondents were not asked whether they would still support commuter rail if it came with any of these or other taxes or fees.<\/p>\n

Traffic impact<\/strong>
\nCommuter rail is sold as a way to reduce traffic congestion on crowded highways. But the state\u2019s own study shows that commuter rail will have little if any discernible impact on highway traffic congestion. Shouldn\u2019t people know that when asked whether they would support commuter rail?<\/p>\n

The DOT\u2019s study estimated daily commuter rail ridership at 3,130 for the Manchester Regional Commuter Rail line and 1,170 for a Nashua line. The upper end figures (best case scenario) were 4,170 for a Manchester line and 1,540 for a Nashua line.<\/p>\n

The DOT\u2019s latest traffic data show 109,000 vehicle trips per day on I-93 in Salem and 112,000 on the F.E. Everett Turnpike in Nashua. At best, a Manchester commuter rail line might reduce traffic on I-93 by 0.38 percent, while a Nashua line might reduce traffic on the F.E. Everett Turnpike in Nashua by 0.14 percent.<\/p>\n

The Capitol Corridor study also stated that the Intercity 8 service option connecting Concord to Lowell, Mass., offering four round-trip rides per day, would attract an estimated 172,645 passengers per year. That is only 473 riders per day. With 221,000 vehicle trips per day on the two main commuter highways, that is hardly enough ridership to produce a noticeable reduction in traffic congestion.<\/p>\n

If people were told what the state\u2019s own study found about commuter rail\u2019s potential impact on traffic congestion, might the responses look different?<\/p>\n

Commute times<\/strong>
\nThe public might be under the impression that commuter rail would reduce commuting times to and from Boston. The Capitol Corridor study concluded that total travel time from Concord to Boston\u2019s North Station would be 96 minutes.<\/p>\n

Google Maps estimates the driving time between the Concord park-and-ride lot on Route 3A and North Station in the middle of a Wednesday afternoon at\u2026 96 minutes. Told that passenger rail might not reduce commute times, perhaps public support would remain high. Or perhaps not.<\/p>\n

Zoning changes<\/strong>
\nResearchers at the University of California Transportation Center recently studied the relationship between commuter rail cost-effectiveness and population density. They found that a cost-effective rail line for a mid-sized city should meet three criteria: 1) a minimum population density of 14 people per acre and 100,000 jobs within a half-mile of the station, and a capital cost per mile of $25 million or less.<\/p>\n

Manchester and Nashua have population densities nowhere near that minimum threshold. State data show that Manchester has about 5 and Nashua has about 4.5 people per acre. Though both cities have some scattered pockets of greater density, neither has a consistent, highly dense population plus 100,000 jobs within a half-mile of a potential train station. Nashua\u2019s entire civilian labor force is only 49,000; Manchester\u2019s is only 62,000.<\/p>\n

This is why the state\u2019s Capitol Corridor study suggested that land use changes would be needed to create more density near any train station.<\/p>\n

People living in those areas should know that this would be part of a commuter rail plan.<\/p>\n

Effect on other infrastructure<\/strong>
\nA state-run commuter rail line would cost state money to operate and maintain. If not financed by a new tax or fee, operating funds would have to come from existing revenues, such as lottery revenue, business taxes or fuel taxes. That would require a reduction in spending elsewhere in the state budget. Poll respondents should be asked about these tradeoffs.<\/p>\n

Without asking about alternatives, a poll supposedly showing high support for \u201ccommuter rail\u201d doesn\u2019t tell policymakers very much. A good poll would give people options.<\/p>\n

In fact, the DOT\u2019s Capitol Corridor study offered five commuter options, including two bus service alternatives. The study showed that expanded bus service was vastly less expensive than rail. Bus options had \u201cfinal capital costs ranging from $7.4$17 million, incremental O& M from $0-$3 million,\u201d the report concluded.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know whether people would prefer public rail to public bus service because the polls never asked the question.<\/p>\n

Ridership<\/strong>
\nThe most obvious question not asked in these commuter rail polls is this: \u201cHow often would you ride a commuter train to Boston?\u201d The answer obviously would be affected by ticket costs. The question could incorporate a range of ticket prices. It also could incorporate a range of stations.<\/p>\n

But because the questions ask only whether people support an abstract concept, we have no idea how many Granite Staters have any intention of actually using a commuter rail line to Boston.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong>
\nBefore accepting at face value a single, out-of-context poll result, some skepticism is warranted.<\/p>\n

When it comes to commuter rail, advocacy polling so far has told us only that people like the general concept of having a commuter rail option to Boston. It has told us nothing about which of several competing alternatives people might prefer, whether their preference would change once costs and other considerations are factored in, or whether they have any intention of using the train themselves.<\/p>\n

It is premature to conclude that they support any specific commuter rail project.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew Cline is president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy.<\/p>\n

Click here to link to the article at the Josiah Bartlett Center website.<\/a>
\nClick here to download the Josiah Bartlett Center article.<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Facts about Commuter Rail from Andrew Cline of the Josiah Bartlett Center. A Skeptic\u2019s Guide to Commuter Rail Boosterism. To promote taxpayer funding of a quarter-billion dollar commuter rail project, supporters last week touted a single poll question, without context, that appeared to show strong public support for commuter rail. It\u2019s a tactic rail enthusiasts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[17,16],"class_list":["post-4009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-secial-alerts","tag-stop-spending","tag-tax"],"yoast_head":"\nSkeptic's Commuter Rail Guide - Granite State Taxpayers<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/granitestatetaxpayers.org\/gst\/skeptics-commuter-rail-guide\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Skeptic's Commuter Rail Guide - Granite State Taxpayers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Facts about Commuter Rail from Andrew Cline of the Josiah Bartlett Center. 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